Coronavirus (COVID-19): If you are a skeptic, Part 1

Do you think that the economic price the United States is paying for closing businesses and limiting everyday activity to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is too high?

If you do, consider this:

How many lives have we really lost in the U.S. due to COVID-19?

Some might argue that although at least 180,000 American lives have been lost to COVID-19 (as of August 2020), many more lives have been saved by reductions in commuting and travel (lower accident rates), reduced exposure to flu, and other changes in behavior that have accompanied lockdowns and working at home. To understand the true effect of COVID-19 on American loss of life, it is helpful to look at the excess mortality rate in 2020....

How many people have died in 2020 above and beyond what is considered normal?

Through August of 2020, the number of excess deaths in the U.S. is about 213,000 people (adjusted for increases in population year-to-year). Put simply -- In America, we have lost 213,000 more people than we would in a normal year, and at the time this number was computed, we still have over four months left to go in 2020.

Without lockdowns, where would the U.S. be in terms of excess deaths?

The official mortality rate among documented cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. is about 3.1%. That means 3.1% of people who test positive for COVID-19 lose their lives. However, it is more than likely that many more people have been infected with the novel coronavirus than are formally reported. Considering these undocumented cases, the CDC has determined that the most likely mortality rate from COVID-19 among those infected is 0.65%. If there were no lockdowns and the U.S. did nothing to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, the point or threshold at which the virus would stop spreading in the population is estimated at about 70% of the general population (i.e. herd immunity). 70% of the U.S. population is about 231 million people. At a 0.65% mortality rate, about 1.5 million people would die from COVID-19 before the virus stopped spreading. That's about 1.3 million more deaths than the U.S. has already experienced.

Are those 1.3 million lives really worth the economic impact that the U.S. has suffered?

Well, this question is asking to put a price on human life and I'm not going to go there.

Instead, consider that there are many ways to measure the economic impact. One marker to look at is the number of Americans now unemployed as a result of lockdowns and other actions taken to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus in the U.S.. As of July 2020, about 16 million people are unemployed compared to about 6 million people before the pandemic began. This means that about 10 million additional people out of the 165 million person workforce in the U.S. are now unemployed.

If we have paid a price of 10 million unemployed to prevent 1.3 million from dying, that's about 8 people unemployed for every life saved.

Is it worth it? You decide.

Consider another perspective. There are 149 million people in the U.S. who are still employed. If a group of about fifteen employed people were each to look out for and care for only one unemployed person until the economy rebounds, restrictions could continue, additional deaths would be minimized, and the impact on the lives of ordinary Americans could be largely limited to wearing those pesky facemasks, creatively managing childcare, and a few other annoying and stressful but not life-threatening changes to our lives and lifestyle.

Is it worth it? You decide.

Sources:

Documented COVID-19 deaths (CDC, Centers for Disease Control)

Excess deaths in the U.S. as of August, 2020 (New York Times)

U.S. population in 2020 (U.S. Census)

U.S. Labor force

Unemployment in the U.S. in 2020 (Statista)

Mortality rate among documented COVID-19 cases in the U.S. (Johns Hopkins University)

Likely mortality rate among all novel coronavirus infections in the U.S. (CDC)

Estimated herd immunity rate for novel coronavirus infections (Mayo Clinic)